July 2, 2009 Mortgage Rates Report
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but mortgage rates are headed higher before Labor Day. The Fed is pulling the plug on its emergency, market-meddling:
An end to the Fed's emergency measures poses a "cliff-effect" risk for the bond market, according to Morgan Stanley.
The effect "increases the risk for a policy misstep and produces greater uncertainty," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in their midyear outlook published on Wednesday.
They forecast benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields could push toward 4.25 percent by the end of the year, almost 0.70 percentage point above current levels. Short-term yields on the other hand will likely stay steady.
Think of the relationship between Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities like a dog, leashed by his master. Sometimes, the the master lets the dog run and then...
SNAP!
The master tugs on the leash and the dog comes running towards him. The Fed's emergency mortgage-backed securities program was a tug on the leash, in an effort to bring mortgage rates down towards Treasury bonds. The Fed's letting the leash out. Expect interest rates to rise and mortgage rates to rise even faster. Let's lock all loans at application.

