MORTGAGE RATES REPORT

What's The Cost Of Renting?

Does buying REALLY make sense?  In this goofy real estate market there really are some costs associated with renting instead of buying a home.  Opportunity costs but costs nonetheless.

Why are folks buying homes today?

1- They're cheap. It's going to go up in price. It won't be for awhile but still a good reason to buy .
2- You can write off your mortgage interest.  That's not true for most home buyers today.
3- A fully-amortizing loan is like a forced savings account.  Illiquid savings account but I'll buy that.
4- The US Government is bribing people to buy homes.  We'll harvest that $8,000 tax credit.

Let's run some numbers.

June was considering a Pacific Beach condo for $278,000.  She currently pays about $1,000/month in rent.  She's considering this condo purchase with a VA loan because she's a veteran of the US Army.  Her total payment, including the property taxes and HOA fee, would be about $2200.  June's a nurse who makes $80,000.  She's single so she currently takes the standard tax deduction of $5,700. She plans to hold the home for five years and expects to sell it for 15% more than today's price; she'll net $296,000 after sales expenses (in 2014).

What is the cost of NOT purchasing the Pacific Beach condo today?

1- Let's assume June's right about the appreciation.  She stands to make $18,000 in five years; that's about $300/month.

2- June doesn't fully benefit from mortgage interest deduction.  If she stays put, she can write off $5,700/year (479/month).  She will have paid about $75,000 in interest over the next five years or $1250 per month.  When we back out her standard deduction ($479/month), her benefit of buying the home is that she can write off an extra $771/month.  She'll also be able to deduct her property taxes (289/month) for a total MARGINAL income deduction of $1,060.  That saves her about $365/month in income taxes.

3- June will pay that loan down to $257,000.  That builds equity up of about $350/month.

4- The effect of the $8,000 legal bribe is about $133/month, over five years.

5- June's closing costs are $6,000. Amortized over five years, that's an added expense of $100/month

June's opportunity cost of NOT buying, exclusive of appreciation, is $748.  Subtract that from the $2200 payment and her payment "feels like" $1452.  She gains $352/month by renting instead of buying.

The big question is...will June make 15%, over five years, by owning this home?

or...can June negotiate a lower price, by about $45,000, so that her monthly payment drops about $350/month?  At $233,000, June is actually losing money by renting.

San Diego County Houses For Sale Down. Is This a Head Fake?

Jeff Dowler reports that Oceanside supply (number of properties available) is dropping precipitously.  This phenomenon is happening all over San Diego County causing new home buyers to get into bidding wars for aggressively-priced, bank-owned properties:

At the end of May 2009 there were 726 Oceanside homes for sale (380 detached and 346 attached) a decline of 7% from the end of April (this includes the homes with Contingent status). This represents an inventory of only 1.8 months for detached homes and 3.7 months for detached homes based on the current rate of sales over the last 6 months, both of which declined again from the previous month.  These absorption rates continue to be impressive when compared to many other parts of the country, some of which have over 2 years of inventory. Indeed we are seeing more multiple offers, not only on distress sales but also on regular sales, especially below $400,000. 

In May we saw 162 homes come on the market, 31% fewer than in April (and almost half the number of new listings in March) . During May 211 homes went pending, about 20% fewer than in the previous month. So coupled with another decline in inventory (with fewer new homes for sale) we saw an increase in volume, which has resulted in the low absorption rates noted above.

Is this the bottom of the real estate market or, as Greg Swann referred to this phenomenon in Phoenix, a "Fools Gold Rush" ?

Here's what's really going on: Last fall FannieMae and FreddieMac, along with some of the bigger private mortgage banks, declared a moratorium on new foreclosures.

So for four months, homes that would have been foreclosed on sat on the sidelines of the real estate market.

And for those same four months, inventories of already-foreclosed homes declined. In March of 2009, for example, a total of 7,621 listed homes were sold in the Phoenix area, of which 5,066 -- two thirds! -- were lender-owned homes.

That sounds good doesn't it? Even better, as I write this, only 7,607 lender-owned homes are listed as being Active in the MLS database. That's just a month-and-a-half's supply. Happy days are here again!

Not quite. That Fannie/Freddie moratorium on new foreclosures ended on April 1st. In the first three weeks of April, there were 2,460 new lender-owned listings. And there are still two years of foreclosures in the pipeline.

What we're seeing is a Fool's Gold Rush. The perceived shortage of housing is an illusion, an artifact of a normal number of buyers competing for an inventory that seems to be declining rapidly. It isn't. Instead, even now the inventory of lender-owned homes is surging.

Head fake or hard numbers?  The federal foreclosure mortatorium is over but the State of California just initiated a like measure for ninety days.  Are these moratoria government's efforts to delay the inevitable or are bargains really available to the San Diego County home buyers?  Keep in mind that lenders will have been forbidden to pursue a defaulted San Diego County homeowner for seven out of twelve months this year.  This could lead to an onslaught of inventory after Halloween.  That might just be okay because we're seeing lots of pent-up demand to mop up that excess supply.

A first-time home buyer tax credit, combined with relatively low mortgage rates still might make today's property offerings a bargain.  You might analyze each property the way we do so that your downside is limited.  Certainly, property prices should be higher in 2020 than they are today.  Just be careful to do your homework.

Whichever you decide, Jeff Dowler is a pretty sharp North County real estate agent.  Use his Search tool to look at the properties offered.

Don't Fight the Fed: June 2009 Rates Won't Break 5%

If you've been paying attention, you know that I have the heart of a trader.  I try to offer analysis  rather than opinion.  Last week, I felt the bond traders were overreacting to optimistic economic news and commentary by politicians.  I generally ignore those folks and focus on the Fed.  I said that one of the first rules of investing was "Don't Fight The Fed"; I won't.

This morning's par mortgage rates (with 1%origination fee):

Conventional:      5.375%
FHA/VA                    5.50%
Jumbo(>$417K)   5.875%          

Last November, The Fed released this:

The Federal Reserve announced on Tuesday that it will initiate a program to purchase the direct obligations of housing-related government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)--Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks--and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae.  Spreads of rates on GSE debt and on GSE-guaranteed mortgages have widened appreciably of late.  This action is being taken to reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for the purchase of houses, which in turn should support housing markets and foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally.

Yesterday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said this:

We continue to expect overall economic activity to bottom out, and then to turn up later this year. Our assessments that consumer spending and housing demand will stabilize and that the pace of inventory liquidation will slow are key building blocks of that forecast.

Bernanke might just be off the "support the MBS market" bandwagon.  If he ain't opening the Fed checkbook, expect mortgage rates to naturally gravitate towards the 6% plus level by the end of the year.  This won't happen immediately so there will be periods of market overreaction, which will cause me to issue a "float" recommendation.  Generally speaking, my bias has changed from "there will be sunny days tomorrow", for mortgage rates to "there may be a storm-a-brewin'".

I've got you locked if you're closing your loan before June 21.  Today, I'm locking anyone who is closing by July 15, 2009.  The past two weeks have been a fun ride and many of you got 5% mortgage rates by being patient and nimble.  The tacit change in Fed bias has me too worried right now; lock all loans at application.

Apply online now.  It's really simple and should take about 20 minutes.

Expect June 2009 Mortgage Rates To Improve

UPDATE:  Now locking all loans closing before June 21, 2009.

The catastrophic mortgage rates meltdown is almost over.  The mortgage-backed securities market dropped significantly, driving retail par mortgage rates from 4.5% (8-9 days ago) to a high of 5.375% (Wednesday).  While many cautioned that mortgage rates were headed higher, I separated personal opinion from my analysis and suggested that bond traders overreacted.  I advised borrowers to suspend the rate lock decision until retail mortgage rates came back down to 5% or better.  I expected that to happen next week. 

I was wrong...

...it just happened.   One of our leading banks "repriced" this afternoon and the retail par rate is now 5.0%. 4.875% has a quarter-point cost.  If you have to close next week, 5.0% isn't a bad rate to grab.  I think we'll see the rest of the lenders follow this big bank's lead, early next week.

What could make this mortgage rate recovery advance to 4.5% next week?  Remember, mortgage bonds drive retail mortgage rates so we want to be looking for bond-friendly events. Investors look for safe havens when there is unrest in the world.  US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are a favorite safe haven.  If North Korea launches more missiles or Iran keeps taunting Israel to the point of armed conflict, investors might buy bonds which would drive down mortgage rates.  Increased Fed mortgage market intervention is likely too.

What could reverse the current recovery and send mortgage rates to 5.5%?  Inflation, or the fear of it, is the market enemy number one.  If traders think the economic recovery is nigh, we could see rates inch up again.  I think that's unlikely; the economic data we receive suggests the opposite.  If traders get back on the McClintock-Gross bandwagon and think that the US Government is about to declare bankruptcy, we'll see higher mortgage rates.

My money's on a sputtering economy, a pugnacious North Korea, an annoying Iran, and a sustained mortgage rates recovery.  I'm looking for rates to get back to to 4.75% by the end of next week.

Apply online now.  It's really simple and should take about 20 minutes.

Higher June '09 Mortgage Rates? Not So Fast

We’re in the “Era Of Finger Pointing” so I”ll just pile on; mortgage rates have skyrocketed in the past week and it’s all the Chinese, Tom McClintock, and Bill Gross’ fault.

Tom McClintock is a  California Congressman (and former gubernatorial candidate).  Congressman McClintock wrote an opinion piece, in the Washington Times this past weekend, that suggested that the budget crisis in California foreshadows the inevitable national crisis:

What can California do? Its credit is stretched to the breaking point, and increasing tax rates now produces decreasing tax revenues. Its deficit vastly exceeds resolution by conventional budget reductions. There is no line item labeled “waste,” and the state’s deficit vastly exceeds the truly obsolete and overlapping programs strewn throughout its budget.

McClintock’s summary and warning:

The decline and fall of the California Republic is a morality play in the form of Greek tragedy. Before dismissing California’s agony as the just price for its hubris and folly, though, heed this warning: Congress is well under way toward imposing the same policies on the rest of the nation. California is just a little further down that road.

Bill Gross is perhaps the most prescient fixed-income money manager in the world.  He’s often known for being early but correct.  Mr. Gross suggested that America’s soverign debt might lose it’s rock-solid AAA rating and that we’re headed for the junk bond heap:

Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, warned on Thursday the United States will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating, a fear that had already spooked financial markets on Thursday and could keep the dollar, stocks and bonds under heavy selling pressure.

Throw in the unsolicited money management advice from our largest creditor, the Maoists, and you have a recipe for a panic run on mortgage bonds.

Mortgage rates responded appropriately; the mortgage-backed securities market sold off about 3% in the last five days.  This means that a 4.5% mortgage rate, that cost 1 point a week ago, costs 4 points today.  This is a short-term overreaction.   Moody’s rating service, mostly owned by Friend of Obama (FOO), Warren Buffett, reaffirmed the US Treasury’s Aaa (highest) rating today:

And today, Warren Buffett’s Moody’s (MCO) went ahead and decided to kick sand in Bill Gross’s face yet again. How so? Moody’s affirmed the U.S.’s Aaa rating, arguing that “the U.S. economy’s long-term resilience and key role in global affairs should bolster its ability to resume a strong performance following the current recession.”

In addition to the Gross-slap Warren Buffett administered today, the Fed still has $600-700 billion earmarked to support mortgage-backed securities.  This means that they can buy a bunch of mortgage bonds, to bid up the lost 3% and drive rates back down into the 4’s.

Is this crazy? Why are we borrowing from Mao to subsidize Joe’s mortgage?  The answer lies in the depression recession war; we gotta subsidize housing by any means available if we want to pull out of the economic nose dive- even if it means we have to bribe “Big Daddy Buffett” to git ‘er done.

What’s this mean to you? Locking in your mortgage rate is probably a hasty decision right now.  Expect Ben Bernanke to speak by Friday in his gentle, reassuring tone.  Tim Geithner should be front and center, calming down those impetuous bond traders tomorrow.  Mortgage rates should drift down by the end of next week.

The Chinese, Tom McClintock, and Bill Gross are all correct; the US government’s actions are inflationary and destructive.  They are all correct but early.  The time to panic will be this fall; hopefully you’ll do what you need to get done by then.

Apply online now.  It's really simple and should take about 20 minutes.

FHA & VA Mortgages Are Assumable

One of the benefits we often forget, when describing VA home loans and FHA mortgages, is they are assumable.  What this means is that a buyer can "take the payments over" from a seller, if the existing loan is a FHA mortgage or VA home loan. 

First, let me tell you why this is exciting:

Today, a VA home loan rate will be around 5%.  I believe that inflation will kick in, sometime in the next 6-18 months, causing mortgage rates to skyrocket to 6.5% or higher.  Left unchecked, inflation could drive mortgage rates into double digits by 2012.  The good news is that home prices will probably jump up, too (if runaway inflation is present).

How hard will it be to sell a house in five years, with mortgage rates at 10% ?

Pretty tough...unless you can offer the buyer a below market interest rate.  Let's assume a San Diegan buys a $300,000 home today and finances $306,000 with a 5% VA home loan.  His payment will be $1,642.

That same veteran looks to sell that home, in 2014, for $400,000 but VA home loan rates are at 10%.  The new buyer, looking to finance $408,000 at the market rate of 10%, would have a payment of $3580; that's over twice the original payment.

What would happen if the selling veteran, held a $100,000 second mortgage, for 25 years, at 12%, and allowed the buying veteran to assume his 5% VA home loan?

The payment on the second mortgage would be $1,053. Add the (now) 25-year, original VA home loan, at 5% payment of $1,642 and you have a financing package that is about $900 cheaper than a $408,000 VA home loan.

Now, here comes the bad news:

VA home loans are only assumable to other veterans (that limits the market).  Technically, any deed transfer would trigger a due-on-sale clause causing the original VA loan to be called.  Pragmatically, that doesn't happen.

Unless the original loan is formally assumed, with VA approval, the selling veteran will have his VA home loan eligibility tied up.

Even with a formal assumption, the selling veteran is still responsible for the original loan payments for the first five years.  You had better be certain that the buyer is credit-worthy.

The seller is stuck with a note, not cash.  That note could be sold on the secondary market but prices are typically about 70 cents on the dollar; that could cost the seller some $30,000 in profit.

The same rules apply for an FHA mortgage, too (except that neither the buyer nor seller needs to be a veteran).

On balance, the assumption of a VA home loan or FHA mortgage could be an excellent selling feature.  Low prices and historically-low mortgage rates make these loans a consideration when comparing them to a conventional loan.

How Important Are First Time Home Buyers To the California Real Estate Market?

I asked my LinkedIn community how important first time home buyers were to their (local) real estate market. 

Rosemary Joles of San Diego said:

Many of the San Diego first time home buyers thought they had been priced out of the market at the top of the real estate boom. They now are beginning to realize they can fulfill the dream of home ownership again here in San Diego. 50% of my business is first time home buyers, so they are extremely important to me. In addition they are very important to the revitalization of the housing market as a whole. Especially since they make up 41% of the current market share.

I agree, Rosemary.  Two years ago, I warned of the impending collapse of the under $500,000 market in San Diego County.  Last year, I thought that market would be robust this year and that the $500,000- $1,000,000 market would suffer due to lack of available financing.  As it turns out, I was right both years.  I think we'll continue to see "bargains" in the under $500,000 market, well into 2010 and increasing value in the mid-priced homes, as its prices collapse.

Will Handley, a Los Angeles home inspector said:

First time buyers are the industries life blood. My business expands and or contracts based on the healthy in-flow of new first time buyers into the market. With employment numbers in decline, the corporate transfer client base is shrinking as well. Thank goodness for the exceptionally robust REO market.

Amen, Will.  The REO market (foreclosed homes being offered by the bank) isn't just healthy for the real estate industry, its healthy for the economy if we intend to battle back from this recession. 

John Pucciano, a REALTOR in the DC-area, remarked:

At this stage, particularly with the $8,000 stimulus credit for first time buyers, low interest rates and affordable housing, first timers make up more than 40% of my business. This appears to be more than a local market experience (see resources below). While they do require additional effort, it is very satisfying to help the first timers progress to home ownership. I have been making a concerted effort to reach out to them.

John's correct.  The $8,000 tax credit, for people who have not owned a home in the past three years, is akin to federal bribery.  Simply put, the Government is willing to give you eight grand if you'll buy a home between now and December 1.  I think the problem is that many first time home buyers either:

(a) don't know that the program expires December 1, 2009
(b) don't believe the Government will stop the program.

I can't intelligently speculate about the unpredictable actions of our Government but I do know that its prone to do whatever will garner them votes.  Unemployed, unhappy people don't vote for the party in power so take that into account.

Condo Mortgages Seen As "Risky" and Will Cost More April 1, 2009

If you're looking to purchase a condominium with less than 25% down payment, it's almost a safe bet that government financing will be the way to go.  On April 1, 2009, conventional financing for condominiums will be more expensive:

Applicants who seek to buy a condominium and cannot come up with a 25% down payment will be hit with a three-quarter point add-on penalty, no matter how high their credit score, simply because they are not buying a traditional detached, stand-alone home.

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac say they are tacking on these fees to counter higher risks and losses associated with certain loan products, buyer equity stakes and credit scores. Declining home values in many parts of the country are intensifying losses for both companies when loans go to foreclosure.

Freddie spokesman Brad German said some of the loan categories and credit risk combinations targeted in the latest round of fees "default at four to eight times" the rate of other mortgages in the company's portfolio. "We have to manage these risks appropriately," he added, and that means pricing them based on the probability of higher losses.

This is called "risk-based pricing" and it's quite appropriate. Condominiums have an extra layer of government; the Home Owners' Association.  Most HOAs are broke and not doing their job properly.  The more expensive financing demonstrates that Fannie and Freddie expect more, not less problems with condominiums in the future.

How would this affect you, the condominium buyer?  Well If you were buying a $400,000 property, and didn't put down $100,000, your mortgage is subject to a .75% fee ($750 for every $100,000 borrowed).  That's $2,250 EXTRA for a $300,000 mortgage.   You could pay that fee, one-time, at closing or have it worked into a higher interest rate.  To absorb that fee into a higher interest rate, it would cost about an extra .25%-.375% to the rate

So, if you wanted a condo loan, you'd either get 5% today, with a 1% origination fee PLUS .75% condo delivery fee, or a 5.375% rate with the 1% origination fee.

This makes government financing all the more compelling, now.  Neither FHA nor VA require this "adverse delivery fee". FHA and VA strictly monitor condominium complexes so that the "extra layer of government", the HOA, operates properly.  If the complex carries a HUD or VA approval, it's been through a more thorough vetting than conventional loan require.

Don't Fret About Foreclosure. You Can Make A Comeback.

Can’t afford your mortgage?  Call your lender and ask them to modify the loan to a payment you can afford.  The lender representative will ask you for a stack of paperwork and try to get you to keep paying “something…as a sign of good faith”.  After three or four months, you may receive an offer to reduce your rate to 2-3%, for a five year period, to “get you over the hump”.

You still owe the money you borrowed, though.

The house is worth less than what you borrowed?  Ask for a principal reduction.  I tried helping distressed borrowers with the Hope For Homeowners Program; my efforts failed miserably.  Andrew Adams told me it would flop and it did.  We did SOME good (without the H4H program)…for about half the borrowers but the program was a flop.  Now, President Obama is trying to “entice” lenders to refinance your loan to 105% of its current value and empower bankruptcy judges to “cram a reduced loan amount” down the lenders’ throats.

I’m not so certain that will work, either.

The social ramifications of what Greg Swann calls middle class welfare are far reaching.  An angry cauldron, fueled by the resentment of the folks who are current on their mortgage, is bubbling over today.  Let me give you an example:

Two houses, on the same street in Santee, CA, were bought for $500,000, in the summer of 2006.  Eileen was a move-up buyer who plunked $150,000 down on her home.  Lou bought the home with zero-down financing.  Eileen refinanced her home loan to 4.75% last month, bringing about $35,000 to the closing.  Lou hasn’t made a payment in three months, has had his foreclosure stalled, and is hoping that March 4 will bestow a bailout upon him.

Eileen is pissed off and she ain’t alone.  What worries me isn’t whether or not the Obama mortgage plan is fair, it’s that the implementation of it could result in civil unrest.  Don’t get me wrong, the bailouts of the stupid banks who financed you are perhaps the greatest evil foisted upon our economy but now we’re pitting neighbor against neighbor.

Let me recap the “bailout” for you; not the banks but YOU.  The government tried to mitigate with a program that offered hope; FLOP.  Now, you can get your mortgage refinanced….maybe…IF, you can demonstrate that you can’t make your payment and miss a few of them.  If the lenders won’t play ball with this plan, you can voluntarily file bankruptcy and hold your breath that you get a compassionate judge to force the banks to give give you another shot.

There is another option. Let me show you an example of what I see in the same street:

Lou is paying $3,500/month for those mortgages (which he can’t afford).  Tanya is renting the house next door for $1,500/month.

Here’s the solution, Lou; walk from the mortgage.  Mail your keys to the bank and rent the house down the street. If the “teaser” payment was $2,500 (and you could afford that), save the $1,000 each month, for the next three years, and buy back your old house in 2012.  The FHA 203-b loan program allows borrowers, who have a foreclosure that is older than 36 months and have re-established credit , to obtain an approval.

Walk today and buy that same house back in 2012. Do you really think it’s going to cost a whole lot more than it’s worth today?

Consider a comeback if you will. It’s a great American tradition.

Undervalued Phoenix Investment Properties

Greg Swann, a real estate broker in Phoenix, talks about the incredible values to be found in Maricopa County:

I wrote last week about the incredible bargains to be had in the Phoenix resale real estate market. Dumpy homes in bad neighborhoods are very, very cheap, but there are so many Short Sales and Lender-Owned homes on the market right now that you can buy choice homes in choice neighborhoods for amazingly low prices.

If the run-up in prices in 2005 was caused by “irrational exuberance,” then our current market is driven by “irrational despondency.” The question for people who are not irrational is this one: How low can these prices go?

Greg went to far as to build out a website that features his #1 pick for real estate investors in Maricopa County.  Check it out; the price is astounding