MORTGAGE RATES REPORT

June 17, 2009 Mortgage Rates Report: Approaching 5.0%

Mortgage rates have improved since last Friday.  I felt we could delay locks (float) in hopes of better rates and that's proved to be fruitful. Lock-in your mortgage rate on the strength of this improvement.

Inflation doesn't appear to be a threat.  Yesterday's Producer Price Index reflected the threat of higher oil prices but came in within reason; the mortgage bonds market liked what it saw.  The Consumer Price Index, released this morning, was well under expectations; this should be positive for mortgage bonds and could lead to lower rates.

I expect our morning rate sheets (no points, 1% origination fee) to look something like this:

Conv        5.125%
FHA          5.25% 
VA             5.25% 

Next week's Fed meeting could stifle speculation that it will hike interest rates later this year:

Federal Reserve officials are considering whether to use next week’s policy statement to suppress any speculation they’re prepared to raise interest rates as soon as this year.

While policy makers have signaled they accept an increase in longer-term Treasury yields as the economy improves, some are concerned at any premature anticipation of rate rises. Fed staff have examined the Bank of Canada’s public intention of foregoing an increase until 2010, according to a person familiar with the matter, without concluding the statement has proven effective.

I have mixed feelings about the Fed adopting a policy akin to the Bank of Canada's rate commitment.  Markets crave stability but react to reassuring news in a volatile fashion.  I wouldn't be surprised to see mortgage bonds decline on such news; traders might think the Fed has abandoned its commitment to taming inflation.  Counter-intuitive thinking?  Absolutely but reason and rational thought sometimes give way to fear.

I'll update rates later, if necessary.

Apply online now.  It's really simple and should take about 20 minutes.

 

San Diego County Houses For Sale Down. Is This a Head Fake?

Jeff Dowler reports that Oceanside supply (number of properties available) is dropping precipitously.  This phenomenon is happening all over San Diego County causing new home buyers to get into bidding wars for aggressively-priced, bank-owned properties:

At the end of May 2009 there were 726 Oceanside homes for sale (380 detached and 346 attached) a decline of 7% from the end of April (this includes the homes with Contingent status). This represents an inventory of only 1.8 months for detached homes and 3.7 months for detached homes based on the current rate of sales over the last 6 months, both of which declined again from the previous month.  These absorption rates continue to be impressive when compared to many other parts of the country, some of which have over 2 years of inventory. Indeed we are seeing more multiple offers, not only on distress sales but also on regular sales, especially below $400,000. 

In May we saw 162 homes come on the market, 31% fewer than in April (and almost half the number of new listings in March) . During May 211 homes went pending, about 20% fewer than in the previous month. So coupled with another decline in inventory (with fewer new homes for sale) we saw an increase in volume, which has resulted in the low absorption rates noted above.

Is this the bottom of the real estate market or, as Greg Swann referred to this phenomenon in Phoenix, a "Fools Gold Rush" ?

Here's what's really going on: Last fall FannieMae and FreddieMac, along with some of the bigger private mortgage banks, declared a moratorium on new foreclosures.

So for four months, homes that would have been foreclosed on sat on the sidelines of the real estate market.

And for those same four months, inventories of already-foreclosed homes declined. In March of 2009, for example, a total of 7,621 listed homes were sold in the Phoenix area, of which 5,066 -- two thirds! -- were lender-owned homes.

That sounds good doesn't it? Even better, as I write this, only 7,607 lender-owned homes are listed as being Active in the MLS database. That's just a month-and-a-half's supply. Happy days are here again!

Not quite. That Fannie/Freddie moratorium on new foreclosures ended on April 1st. In the first three weeks of April, there were 2,460 new lender-owned listings. And there are still two years of foreclosures in the pipeline.

What we're seeing is a Fool's Gold Rush. The perceived shortage of housing is an illusion, an artifact of a normal number of buyers competing for an inventory that seems to be declining rapidly. It isn't. Instead, even now the inventory of lender-owned homes is surging.

Head fake or hard numbers?  The federal foreclosure mortatorium is over but the State of California just initiated a like measure for ninety days.  Are these moratoria government's efforts to delay the inevitable or are bargains really available to the San Diego County home buyers?  Keep in mind that lenders will have been forbidden to pursue a defaulted San Diego County homeowner for seven out of twelve months this year.  This could lead to an onslaught of inventory after Halloween.  That might just be okay because we're seeing lots of pent-up demand to mop up that excess supply.

A first-time home buyer tax credit, combined with relatively low mortgage rates still might make today's property offerings a bargain.  You might analyze each property the way we do so that your downside is limited.  Certainly, property prices should be higher in 2020 than they are today.  Just be careful to do your homework.

Whichever you decide, Jeff Dowler is a pretty sharp North County real estate agent.  Use his Search tool to look at the properties offered.

Don't Fight the Fed: June 2009 Rates Won't Break 5%

If you've been paying attention, you know that I have the heart of a trader.  I try to offer analysis  rather than opinion.  Last week, I felt the bond traders were overreacting to optimistic economic news and commentary by politicians.  I generally ignore those folks and focus on the Fed.  I said that one of the first rules of investing was "Don't Fight The Fed"; I won't.

This morning's par mortgage rates (with 1%origination fee):

Conventional:      5.375%
FHA/VA                    5.50%
Jumbo(>$417K)   5.875%          

Last November, The Fed released this:

The Federal Reserve announced on Tuesday that it will initiate a program to purchase the direct obligations of housing-related government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)--Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks--and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae.  Spreads of rates on GSE debt and on GSE-guaranteed mortgages have widened appreciably of late.  This action is being taken to reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for the purchase of houses, which in turn should support housing markets and foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally.

Yesterday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said this:

We continue to expect overall economic activity to bottom out, and then to turn up later this year. Our assessments that consumer spending and housing demand will stabilize and that the pace of inventory liquidation will slow are key building blocks of that forecast.

Bernanke might just be off the "support the MBS market" bandwagon.  If he ain't opening the Fed checkbook, expect mortgage rates to naturally gravitate towards the 6% plus level by the end of the year.  This won't happen immediately so there will be periods of market overreaction, which will cause me to issue a "float" recommendation.  Generally speaking, my bias has changed from "there will be sunny days tomorrow", for mortgage rates to "there may be a storm-a-brewin'".

I've got you locked if you're closing your loan before June 21.  Today, I'm locking anyone who is closing by July 15, 2009.  The past two weeks have been a fun ride and many of you got 5% mortgage rates by being patient and nimble.  The tacit change in Fed bias has me too worried right now; lock all loans at application.

Apply online now.  It's really simple and should take about 20 minutes.

Expect June 2009 Mortgage Rates To Improve

UPDATE:  Now locking all loans closing before June 21, 2009.

The catastrophic mortgage rates meltdown is almost over.  The mortgage-backed securities market dropped significantly, driving retail par mortgage rates from 4.5% (8-9 days ago) to a high of 5.375% (Wednesday).  While many cautioned that mortgage rates were headed higher, I separated personal opinion from my analysis and suggested that bond traders overreacted.  I advised borrowers to suspend the rate lock decision until retail mortgage rates came back down to 5% or better.  I expected that to happen next week. 

I was wrong...

...it just happened.   One of our leading banks "repriced" this afternoon and the retail par rate is now 5.0%. 4.875% has a quarter-point cost.  If you have to close next week, 5.0% isn't a bad rate to grab.  I think we'll see the rest of the lenders follow this big bank's lead, early next week.

What could make this mortgage rate recovery advance to 4.5% next week?  Remember, mortgage bonds drive retail mortgage rates so we want to be looking for bond-friendly events. Investors look for safe havens when there is unrest in the world.  US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are a favorite safe haven.  If North Korea launches more missiles or Iran keeps taunting Israel to the point of armed conflict, investors might buy bonds which would drive down mortgage rates.  Increased Fed mortgage market intervention is likely too.

What could reverse the current recovery and send mortgage rates to 5.5%?  Inflation, or the fear of it, is the market enemy number one.  If traders think the economic recovery is nigh, we could see rates inch up again.  I think that's unlikely; the economic data we receive suggests the opposite.  If traders get back on the McClintock-Gross bandwagon and think that the US Government is about to declare bankruptcy, we'll see higher mortgage rates.

My money's on a sputtering economy, a pugnacious North Korea, an annoying Iran, and a sustained mortgage rates recovery.  I'm looking for rates to get back to to 4.75% by the end of next week.

Apply online now.  It's really simple and should take about 20 minutes.

June '09 Mortgage Rates May Not Rise, Despite Mortgage Industry Insiders' Opinions

Mortgage rates have jumped in the waning days of May, 2009.  This meteoric rise is striking fear into the hearts of home buyers, folks looking to refinance, and mortgage industry professionals.  I noted that three people triggered this collapse and suggested that locking-in a mortgage rate tomorrow, might just be a bit hasty:

What’s this mean to you? Locking in your mortgage rate is probably a hasty decision right now.  Expect Ben Bernanke to speak by Friday in his gentle, reassuring tone.  Tim Geithner should be front and center, calming down those impetuous bond traders tomorrow.  Mortgage rates should drift down by the end of next week.

The Chinese, Tom McClintock, and Bill Gross are all correct; the US government’s actions are inflationary and destructive.  They are all correct but early.  The time to panic will be this fall; hopefully you’ll do what you need to get done by then.

Why am I, a self-proclaimed “free-marketeer”,  banking on the Government to bail us out of this little mess? If you’re a regular reader of Mortgage Rates Report, you know that there are two sides to me:

1) conspiracy theory loving member of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (who is unhappy with our nation’’s course in fiscal policy) and …

2) buttoned-down, former Wall Street securities broker.  The latter side of my personality is more interested in the analysis of Government policy rather than the former side’s opinion. Lend your ear to the former securities broker rather than the crack-pot Libertarian.

What this means to you, the potential home buyer or mortgage shopper, is that my opinion, as far-flung as it may be at times, is subordinate to my analysis of the situation.  I tend to hold a contrarian opinion to the traditional,  mortgage industry, knee-jerk reactions to market movements.  While most originators scream “Rates are going up ! “, I want to be looking beyond the next 48 hours and trying to discover what might happen next week and next month.

I said, earlier tonight, that the Federal Reserve Bank has a boatload of money shelved to spend on the purchase of treasury bills and mortgage-backed securities, in order to provide access to cheap capital during the recession.  While I’ve never met the man, I have been reading Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s position papers, about the Fed’s role during The Great Depression, for years:

Despite the varied theories espoused by many establishment economists, it was none other than the Federal Reserve that caused the Great Depression and the horrific suffering, deprivation and dislocation America and the world experienced in its wake. At least, that’s the clearly stated view of current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

I don’t expect him to change his posture because China waived its economic saber at one of his subordinates.

and now…

Here comes the excuse spin for MASSIVE Fed intervention over the next few days:

The Federal Reserve may step up asset purchases to prevent its balance sheet from contracting until policy makers are convinced an economic recovery has taken hold, Fed officials and analysts said.

Demand for some of the Fed’s emergency programs has waned as the grip of the credit crunch loosens, with loans to banks shrinking 38 percent since Jan. 1. The main tool to keep the central bank’s holdings from falling from the current $2.1 trillion would be more purchases of Treasuries, said analysts including former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer.

Demand for Fed loans has waned so it need more assets for its balance sheet (rather than reducing its liabilities).  What this means is that they intend to inject more liquidity into the system because they don’t see an economic recovery underway… just yet.  The unexpected jump in mortgage rates could stall the de-leveraging of the American consumer before fiscal policies could gain traction.  Make no mistake about it; the Fed wants everyone to have a shot at a 4.5% mortgage rate and will use all of the arrows in its quiver to get those mortgage rates down…

…until the close to a billion arrows left are all gone.

Don’t panic just yet. I’m sometimes early in my predictions but I think Bernanke’s going to be writing some big checks in the next 7-10 days.

Apply online now.  It's really simple and should take about 20 minutes.

Higher June '09 Mortgage Rates? Not So Fast

We’re in the “Era Of Finger Pointing” so I”ll just pile on; mortgage rates have skyrocketed in the past week and it’s all the Chinese, Tom McClintock, and Bill Gross’ fault.

Tom McClintock is a  California Congressman (and former gubernatorial candidate).  Congressman McClintock wrote an opinion piece, in the Washington Times this past weekend, that suggested that the budget crisis in California foreshadows the inevitable national crisis:

What can California do? Its credit is stretched to the breaking point, and increasing tax rates now produces decreasing tax revenues. Its deficit vastly exceeds resolution by conventional budget reductions. There is no line item labeled “waste,” and the state’s deficit vastly exceeds the truly obsolete and overlapping programs strewn throughout its budget.

McClintock’s summary and warning:

The decline and fall of the California Republic is a morality play in the form of Greek tragedy. Before dismissing California’s agony as the just price for its hubris and folly, though, heed this warning: Congress is well under way toward imposing the same policies on the rest of the nation. California is just a little further down that road.

Bill Gross is perhaps the most prescient fixed-income money manager in the world.  He’s often known for being early but correct.  Mr. Gross suggested that America’s soverign debt might lose it’s rock-solid AAA rating and that we’re headed for the junk bond heap:

Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, warned on Thursday the United States will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating, a fear that had already spooked financial markets on Thursday and could keep the dollar, stocks and bonds under heavy selling pressure.

Throw in the unsolicited money management advice from our largest creditor, the Maoists, and you have a recipe for a panic run on mortgage bonds.

Mortgage rates responded appropriately; the mortgage-backed securities market sold off about 3% in the last five days.  This means that a 4.5% mortgage rate, that cost 1 point a week ago, costs 4 points today.  This is a short-term overreaction.   Moody’s rating service, mostly owned by Friend of Obama (FOO), Warren Buffett, reaffirmed the US Treasury’s Aaa (highest) rating today:

And today, Warren Buffett’s Moody’s (MCO) went ahead and decided to kick sand in Bill Gross’s face yet again. How so? Moody’s affirmed the U.S.’s Aaa rating, arguing that “the U.S. economy’s long-term resilience and key role in global affairs should bolster its ability to resume a strong performance following the current recession.”

In addition to the Gross-slap Warren Buffett administered today, the Fed still has $600-700 billion earmarked to support mortgage-backed securities.  This means that they can buy a bunch of mortgage bonds, to bid up the lost 3% and drive rates back down into the 4’s.

Is this crazy? Why are we borrowing from Mao to subsidize Joe’s mortgage?  The answer lies in the depression recession war; we gotta subsidize housing by any means available if we want to pull out of the economic nose dive- even if it means we have to bribe “Big Daddy Buffett” to git ‘er done.

What’s this mean to you? Locking in your mortgage rate is probably a hasty decision right now.  Expect Ben Bernanke to speak by Friday in his gentle, reassuring tone.  Tim Geithner should be front and center, calming down those impetuous bond traders tomorrow.  Mortgage rates should drift down by the end of next week.

The Chinese, Tom McClintock, and Bill Gross are all correct; the US government’s actions are inflationary and destructive.  They are all correct but early.  The time to panic will be this fall; hopefully you’ll do what you need to get done by then.

Apply online now.  It's really simple and should take about 20 minutes.

How Important Are First Time Home Buyers To the California Real Estate Market?

I asked my LinkedIn community how important first time home buyers were to their (local) real estate market. 

Rosemary Joles of San Diego said:

Many of the San Diego first time home buyers thought they had been priced out of the market at the top of the real estate boom. They now are beginning to realize they can fulfill the dream of home ownership again here in San Diego. 50% of my business is first time home buyers, so they are extremely important to me. In addition they are very important to the revitalization of the housing market as a whole. Especially since they make up 41% of the current market share.

I agree, Rosemary.  Two years ago, I warned of the impending collapse of the under $500,000 market in San Diego County.  Last year, I thought that market would be robust this year and that the $500,000- $1,000,000 market would suffer due to lack of available financing.  As it turns out, I was right both years.  I think we'll continue to see "bargains" in the under $500,000 market, well into 2010 and increasing value in the mid-priced homes, as its prices collapse.

Will Handley, a Los Angeles home inspector said:

First time buyers are the industries life blood. My business expands and or contracts based on the healthy in-flow of new first time buyers into the market. With employment numbers in decline, the corporate transfer client base is shrinking as well. Thank goodness for the exceptionally robust REO market.

Amen, Will.  The REO market (foreclosed homes being offered by the bank) isn't just healthy for the real estate industry, its healthy for the economy if we intend to battle back from this recession. 

John Pucciano, a REALTOR in the DC-area, remarked:

At this stage, particularly with the $8,000 stimulus credit for first time buyers, low interest rates and affordable housing, first timers make up more than 40% of my business. This appears to be more than a local market experience (see resources below). While they do require additional effort, it is very satisfying to help the first timers progress to home ownership. I have been making a concerted effort to reach out to them.

John's correct.  The $8,000 tax credit, for people who have not owned a home in the past three years, is akin to federal bribery.  Simply put, the Government is willing to give you eight grand if you'll buy a home between now and December 1.  I think the problem is that many first time home buyers either:

(a) don't know that the program expires December 1, 2009
(b) don't believe the Government will stop the program.

I can't intelligently speculate about the unpredictable actions of our Government but I do know that its prone to do whatever will garner them votes.  Unemployed, unhappy people don't vote for the party in power so take that into account.

Don't Fret About Foreclosure. You Can Make A Comeback.

Can’t afford your mortgage?  Call your lender and ask them to modify the loan to a payment you can afford.  The lender representative will ask you for a stack of paperwork and try to get you to keep paying “something…as a sign of good faith”.  After three or four months, you may receive an offer to reduce your rate to 2-3%, for a five year period, to “get you over the hump”.

You still owe the money you borrowed, though.

The house is worth less than what you borrowed?  Ask for a principal reduction.  I tried helping distressed borrowers with the Hope For Homeowners Program; my efforts failed miserably.  Andrew Adams told me it would flop and it did.  We did SOME good (without the H4H program)…for about half the borrowers but the program was a flop.  Now, President Obama is trying to “entice” lenders to refinance your loan to 105% of its current value and empower bankruptcy judges to “cram a reduced loan amount” down the lenders’ throats.

I’m not so certain that will work, either.

The social ramifications of what Greg Swann calls middle class welfare are far reaching.  An angry cauldron, fueled by the resentment of the folks who are current on their mortgage, is bubbling over today.  Let me give you an example:

Two houses, on the same street in Santee, CA, were bought for $500,000, in the summer of 2006.  Eileen was a move-up buyer who plunked $150,000 down on her home.  Lou bought the home with zero-down financing.  Eileen refinanced her home loan to 4.75% last month, bringing about $35,000 to the closing.  Lou hasn’t made a payment in three months, has had his foreclosure stalled, and is hoping that March 4 will bestow a bailout upon him.

Eileen is pissed off and she ain’t alone.  What worries me isn’t whether or not the Obama mortgage plan is fair, it’s that the implementation of it could result in civil unrest.  Don’t get me wrong, the bailouts of the stupid banks who financed you are perhaps the greatest evil foisted upon our economy but now we’re pitting neighbor against neighbor.

Let me recap the “bailout” for you; not the banks but YOU.  The government tried to mitigate with a program that offered hope; FLOP.  Now, you can get your mortgage refinanced….maybe…IF, you can demonstrate that you can’t make your payment and miss a few of them.  If the lenders won’t play ball with this plan, you can voluntarily file bankruptcy and hold your breath that you get a compassionate judge to force the banks to give give you another shot.

There is another option. Let me show you an example of what I see in the same street:

Lou is paying $3,500/month for those mortgages (which he can’t afford).  Tanya is renting the house next door for $1,500/month.

Here’s the solution, Lou; walk from the mortgage.  Mail your keys to the bank and rent the house down the street. If the “teaser” payment was $2,500 (and you could afford that), save the $1,000 each month, for the next three years, and buy back your old house in 2012.  The FHA 203-b loan program allows borrowers, who have a foreclosure that is older than 36 months and have re-established credit , to obtain an approval.

Walk today and buy that same house back in 2012. Do you really think it’s going to cost a whole lot more than it’s worth today?

Consider a comeback if you will. It’s a great American tradition.

FHA Hope For San Diego Homeowners

The FHA Hope for Homeowners loan program was released this month. The stated goal of the plan is to help homeowners, who are paying mortgages that are significantly more expensive than when they bought the home (due to rate adjustments), get a home loan they can afford.

Key components of the FHA Hope For Homeowners loan program are not limited to but include:

• An appraisal will be performed and the maximum loan amount will be 90% of that appraised value.  All subordinate liens will be extinguished and the exiting lienholder will have to agree to a loss of principal.
• The current housing payment must be more than 31% of the homeowner’s gross monthly income.
• The homeowner must not have misrepresented his/her income on the original loan application.
• The homeowner must get a new 30-year fixed rate loan and qualify based upon documented income.
• The homeowner must agree to an declining equity sharing agreement (for the existing equity), with the FHA, for a specified period of time.
• The homeowner will share in future appreciation with the FHA.
• The program is completely voluntary; existing lienholders don’t have to participate.

Mary Miller compiled some comments from Mortgages Unzipped authors which demonstrates the difficulty of the program. Loan originators may be hesitant to work with you because of the low probability of a successful funding.  That low probability is due to the fact that existing lienholders may have to take significant writedowns.  I wouldn’t blame an originator who refuses to participate in the FHA Hope For Homeowners Program; loan originators aren’t paid on unsuccessful fundings.

Nonetheless, we welcome loan applications, under the FHA Hope for Homeowners, for Californians in “upside-down mortgages”.  We recently hired a team member with the skill set to work with lenders’ loss mitigation departments.  That specific expertise, combined with our long history as a HUD lender, leads us to believe that we can assist folks who desperately want to retain their California home.  We offer this program with a few conditions:

• We must determine your maximum qualified loan through full income documentation at application.  If you can qualify for a loan amount that might be a reasonable offer to the existing lienholder, we’ll proceed to an appraisal.
• You must pay for the appraisal and credit report upfront; that should be about $500.  The appraised valuation is a key component of the program so that valuation must be established prior to the offer to the existing lienholder.
• We expect to earn a 2% fee, whether paid by you or the new lender ( through yield spread premium). That’s twice the amount we earn for new loan originations.  We think this higher fee is reasonable considering the amount of work required and the low probability of loan funding.  We only receive this fee if we are successful in funding your new loan.

The FHA Hope for Homeowners Loan program offers Californians a chance to stay in their homes at a reasonable price.  If your intention is to live in your home for 5-10 years, this may be a workable solution for you.

While the plan isn’t perfect we know that certain sub-prime lenders have sold their loans at a significant discount and will welcome any and all offers that allow them to make a profit.  For example, if you have a loan with First Franklin, this program might make sense for you.  First Franklin was purchased by Merrill Lynch, in early 2007.  Merrill Lynch sold these loans, for 33 cents on the dollar, this past summer.  What that means is that they sold your $500,000 loan to an investor for $165,000.  If we have to approach First Franklin’s loss mitigation department with a $350,000 payoff for that $500,000 loan, the new investor stands to more than double his money in a few months.  That’s a reasonable proposition to entertain.

Not all loan servicers will be that cooperative, though.  We believe that our connections with Wall Street and secondary mortgage market investors will be a distinct advantage to you, the beleaguered California homeowner.  The FHA Hope for Homeowners Loan program isn’t perfect but it may offer you significant relief.  Please contact me if you have questions about it.

Originally posted on Mortgages Unzipped

San Diego Real Estate and Housing Outlook for 2009

The outlook for San Diego's real estate and housing industry remains flat for 2009.  A marked difference from last year's forecast is that the mid-priced housing units ( $500,000-$1,000,000 ) should experience steep declines whereas the low-priced housing stock led the way in 2008.

I compared my year over year prognostications, about the San Diego Housing market for 2009 and 2008, on Bloodhound Blog:

I think I underreached here.  Four times median income is more reasonable for San Diego, which suggests a median price under $300,000.  I was right; San Diego County’s median price hit $350,000 but I think I was softening the blow by stopping there.

I mentioned on another post, that weblog since disappeared, that the San Diego County housing market would bifurcate.  I suspected that any income growth would happen on the top end and that the bottom half would see little to no income growth.  Combine that with a liquidity crisis and the lower-end homes would get slaughtered while the upper-end would just decline a bit. That happened in San Diego County; lower priced homes are starting to make lots of sense right now.

Next year, I suspect we’ll see a convergence of housing prices as the higher-priced homes follow the lead the of the lower priced homes’ decline.  The median price may very well drop but the lower-priced homes will hold value.  The government is doing everything possible to provide liquidity to the lower end of the market but there will be NO financing available, over $625,000 next year. Watch  Solana Beach, Encinitas, Poway and Scripps Ranch nose dive while the cash-heavy communities of La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, and Del Mar drop just a bit.  Sell that duplex in Cardiff and buy a four-plex in Imperial Beach, if you’re an investor (I imagine Jeff Brown will tell you to just get the hell outta Dodge).

The key component to the housing recovery for San Diego remains in the ability for a home buyer to get financing.  The US Treasury stepped in to provide financing for properties under $625,000, by:

(a) increasing the loan limits for FHA, conforming and VA loans to 115% of median price (expected Jan,2009)
(b) nationalizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (guaranteeing the loan from default)

The luxury home market ($1,000,000 and above) is generally a cash market.  As such, credit availability affects those housing units far less than the "rank and file" developments inhabited by those of us in the "working class". Expect SOME softness in the luxury home market but if the buyer likes the home, she'll either pay cash or have access to highly specialized financing available to the only asset-rich. 

In 2008, I predicted that the median price would decline some 20-25% in San Diego County.  While I didn't expect the mid-range housing stock to be affected by foreclosures, I did expect the lower-priced units to be the first to crumble.  My exact quote, for 2008, was that "the rich will get not rich and the poor will get clobbered".  That's EXACTLY what happened.

Communities like Oceanside, Vista, San Marcos, and Escondido in the North County declined as much as 55%, peak to trough.  The entire South Bay experienced severe declines.  Lower income areas of the City of San Diego and the East County experienced steep declines.  Some areas declined so much that their prices have retreated to point where investment makes complete sense.  The fundamental value of those properties, as measured by the price to rent ratio, is such that it's less expensive to own rather than to rent; we haven't seen that phenomenon in San Diego County since 1999.

Investors, looking to plunk 20% down and receive positive cash-flow, are finding that bank-owned homes, (as opposed to short sales), in distressed areas, are priced so well that they can achieve that objective.  We work with real estate agents who are astute at identifying such opportunities and can help you if you are quick to act.  We expect those opportunities to remain plentiful throughout the first half of 2009.

The cautious real estate buyer will avoid the mid-range priced homes ($500,000-$1,000,000) in San Diego throughout 2009. As more folks in mid-priced homes lose jobs, foreclosure activity will rise.  The problem with that price range is that there will be little or no financing available for buyers due to the loan limit of $625,000.  This means that if the mortgage payment on your Carmel Valley home, worth $1.1 million, is causing you financial discomfort, you'll be selling that home into a market where a willing (and well-heeled) home buyer can't get mortgage financing unless he puts a minimum of a half a million bucks down.

How many people do you know that have a half a million bucks liquid? 

Communities like Poway, Scripps Ranch, 4-S Ranch,Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos, La Mesa, Pacific Beach, Ocean Beach, Solana Beach, Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Cardiff may experience declines of 20-25% this year.  The argument has always been that the homes near the Coast have special value and are somewhat impervious to a decline.  The financing vacuum will prove that theory wrong next year.  When financing for that $625,000 to $1,000,000 becomes available, expect those communities to quickly rebound quickly but...

...if "there ain't no money, there ain't no sale".

Fortunes are made in periods of chaos and unrest.  Don't wait to scoop up bargains under $400,000; those properties are about as cheap as they're going to be.  Stand ready to pounce on that $900,000 Cardiff home with the ocean view; you'll probably pick it up for $650,000 in June of 2009.