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Everyone Loves St Pat's Day

The Irish Congress of Southern California celebrated it's 27th St. Patrick's Day Parade at Balboa Park in in San Diego yesterday.

Some local history from the website, www.stpatsdayparade.org :

Irish immigrants to America started the custom of Irish parades in the main streets of American cities on or around St. Patrick’s Day. Begun in defiance of discrimination in employment and housing, they served as political statements of the grassroots power of Irish immigrants and their descendents.

          

Over time, Irish immigrants and their descendants assimilated into American society and the number of parades throughout the country diminished. The remaining parades evolved in the United States to be celebrations of all things Irish.

          

In December, 1980, on a boat off the coast of California, Jim Foley, John Reynolds, Jim Shannon, Fr. Martin McGovern and Rod Page determined that Southern California was sorely lacking in the proper acknowledgement of the grand Irish folks in the area. In the California waters on that momentous day, the Irish Congress of Southern California was conceived. That very night, the decision was made at the de facto Irish community center of that time - the Blarney Stone Pub on Balboa Avenue.

          

Thus, the Irish Congress of Southern California was born.

San Diego is a patriotic city, home to the Marines and Navy.  We were particularly excited to showcase Edith Shain, the "Times Square Nurse" pictured on the cover of Life Magazine kissing a sailor on V-J Day in 1945.  This beautiful lady is 88 years old and rode down the street like a blushing teenager.

A live "Iwo Jima Memorial" was an entry.  It was thrilling to see the detail rush the mobile stage and strike the famous pose in a reenactment.    

 

 

 

The Knights of Columbus had an entry featuring the Colors Corps.  They are easily identified by their tuxedos, capes, swords,  and Chapeaus designed after the 15th century nautical uniform of their namesake.

 

 

 

 

 

 

My daughter had fun at the festival after the parade, slaying a medieval knight.   

 

Other St. Patrick's Day parades in California are held in Los Angeles, Hermosa Beach, San Francisco, and Dublin.

Cead Mille Failte from San Diego!

The California Mortgage Unemployment Office

Orange County, CA may be in trouble. The OC is home to the subprime lenders of America. The subprime mortgage market is collapsing like a bluff on a beach in a tsunami. Bubble bloggers dance on the graves of the fallen. What I find amusing is that nobody feels bad for a collapsed lender.  I mean, come on, everyone knows that it's just a bunch of rich people playing with the Wall Street's money, right?

Now Main Street's whitewashed windows and vacant stores
Seems like there ain't nobody wants to come down here no more
They're closing down the textile mill across the railroad tracks
Foreman says these jobs are going boys and they ain't coming back to your
hometown
Your hometown
Your hometown
Your hometown

Lyrics from My Hometown by Bruce Springsteen

Well, let me tell you a story of the real estate industrial complex of Orange County.  It may not have a happy ending.  Most lending employees are not highly-paid.  Sure, I've mentioned that the subprime wholesale account executives were paid like starting pitchers for the Angels but the bulk of the folks who crank out the loans are the rank and file, clock-punching, lunch-box carrying, worker bees. These are folks who were tossed into an industry some five years ago, learned their jobs by their wits and excelled during booms.  They stayed late, worked on weekends, and sacrificed vacations, to get the job done.

Now they won't have jobs. "The Boss" opined in the mid '80s about industries leaving small towns and the effect on the local economy.  You have to wonder about the effect on the subprime mortgage capital of the country, Irvine in tony Orange County.  Most of the employees came from the Southern California counties of San Diego, Orange, and Los Angeles.  The subprime mortgages were not only originated there, they provided affordability for the starter homes in those counties.

Let's look at the ripple effect:

(1)- lending guidelines tighten so residential mortgage capital is becoming more scarce.

(2)- loans default in record proportions in a lighting-quick time frame

(3)- lenders announce massive layoffs or simply close the doors

(4)- home building starts drop

(5)- construction jobs become less plentiful

I think it's quite possible that we could see an exodus of young, non-college educated people from the coastal Southern California counties to areas like San Bernandino, Riverside, And Kern counties. The average family needs an income of close to $100,000 to afford a starter home in the coastal counties.  The inland counties provide housing options for a family with a $65,000 income.

I know most people won't shed a tear for the "worker bees" that worked for lenders.  I, however, thank you all for your hard work, dedication, and professionalism during a trying decade of lending.  I wish you the best of luck no matter what you pursue.

Foreclosed in San Diego

Have you ever been wiped out by a wave?  Is that what this foreclosure activity and subprime mortgage market meltdown feels like in The Golden State of California?

Your up on your board (if you surf) or flat on your bodyboard, positioning yourself for a bitchin' ride.  All of the sudden, you realize that you may have miscalculated the size and strength of the wave.  The wave sucks you in and an avalanche of water comes crashing down on you, driving you into the ocean deep.  That feeling can be scary if you can't see the sunlight, are discombobulated, and don't know where the bottom is.  You know in your heart  that everything will be okay but your head is screaming PANIC...PANIC...PANIC !

Any experienced waterman (or real estate broker) will tell you that the best of the best know that THIS is the time to keep your cool. 

 

I received a report today from a company called Foreclosure Radar:

"Foreclosure activity in California may actually be much worse than the media reports", says Sean O' Toole, a real estate broker with Granite Realty of Discovery Bay, CA. Sean started a service for real estate professionals called Foreclosure Radar.  The website and service will be launched in April, 2007.  Sean has authored articles about foreclosures like "Help, I'm in Foreclosure...Now What?" on www.itulip.com

Essentially, Sean blames the slow recordation services of county recorders' offices for the underreporting of foreclosure data. In a press release he says,

"The foreclosure sale numbers, sometimes referred to as REO's reported by similar listing services do not reflect current foreclosure sales activity. Instead, they are based on a document called a Trustee's Deed that gets recorded with the County weeks after the sale. With the rapid changes in the foreclosure market, the delay in waiting for these documents to be recorded has resulted in actual foreclosure sales to be under reported by more than 300%"

Sean further states that his data are reflective of a rapidly rising trend that establishes two things:

(1) Foreclosure activity has doubled in the past five months in California

(2) Lender-owned sales (REO) has returned an average 85% of outstanding loan value.

California Foreclosures in the past 5 months

Month Sales Sale Amount Percent to Lender

Oct-06 1844    $651,586,041 81%

Nov-06 2378    $898,617,232 85%

Dec-06 2819 $1,038,863,685 87%

Jan-07 3592 $1,511,963,634 86%

Feb-07 4171 $1,647,969,405 89%

SOURCE:  Foreclosure Radar

“From these trends we see the biggest impact being on recent homebuyers and their lenders. Of the loans returned in January, 60% were originated in 2005; 30% were originated in 2006,” said O’Toole. “When we take a closer look at the sales, lenders are primarily taking back 80% first mortgages from 100% financing deals. In those cases the 20% second mortgages are simply wiped out.”

Now, before everyone runs out and pulls a Chicken Little (The sky is falling!), let's carefully review what Sean O'Toole is saying here.  He says that foreclosures are rising and that 100% loans, originated in 2005 and 2006, were the culprit.  Prices have settled into 10-15% below those loan amounts.

I can ascertain two things from that report:

1- The bottom of the California market may be 10-15% below the 2005/2006 highs

2- 2004 prices may be reasonable for California homeowners.

The news media may have actually gotten this wrong.  There may be blood running in the streets this year from the loose lending activity of the past two years.  An experienced investor knows that a brutal downturn is far more desirable than a long, drawn out one.

 

Keep your cool.  Trust your heart.  California is still the Golden State.  Another wave is coming;  get prepared for it.

Photos used with the permission of Charles Lasnier, copyright 2004

Peak Performance For Everyday Living

My friend and chiropractor, Dr. Steve Ronco has allowed me to extend a free invitation to my friends and clients in San Diego to: PEAK PERFORMANCE FOR EVERYDAY LIVING   Here are some of the topics you'll hear:        -  How exercise can be easy for everyone everday.        -  What is the NEW balanced diet?        -  Why your mother was right about your posture.        -  How much sleep do you really need?        -  What works better than sleeping pills?        -  Why your symptoms may not be a sign of a drug deficiency.

Peak Performance for Everyday Living        DATE: March 22, 2007 TIME: 7:00pm -8:30pm LOCATION: Doubletree Hotel, 11915 El Camino Real / Carmel Valley, San Diego 92130 RSVP: 858/481.3526 Cost:  $10 per person (at the door)

Attendees to this presentation will receive a free gift of goodies valued at $295, including a health and wellness consultation with Dr. Steve Ronco. Sincerely, Partners in Health & Care Editor Regeneration Age and Co-founder of Partners in Health & Care

My Kind of Town

This is...

My Kind of Town....CHICAGO is...

Many thanks go out to Jeff Kerr of ChiTownLiving for the very cool Chicago T-shirt..  I have a long time love affair with The Second City.  I mention to everybody that I grew up in Philly and longed for something in my life other than Veterans Stadium, cheesesteaks, and soft pretzels.  At age 26, I headed West to see what laid beyond the Schuykill River and ended up in Phoenix.  That wasn't my first choice...

I love Chicago; it's my kind of town.

My first choice, at the tender age of 26, was Chicago.  I worked in securities brokerage back then.  I interviewed with three firms in The Windy City; I wasn't offered a position with any of them.  Now, that might have worked out better for me as I've become a VERY West Coast kind of dude. But...

I love Chicago; it's my kind of town.

I spent my bachelor party in Chicago in 1998 and attended a Cubs game during the heat of the home run race between Sammy Sosa and Mark McGuire.  I was there in 2004 to attend the wedding of my dear friend and loved the reception at The Union League Club.

I love Chicago; it's my kind of town.

Jeff Kerr is a real estate consultant who serves the tony neighborhood of Lincoln Park.  I've had three buddies who lived in Lincoln Park when we were all single.  It's the home of Chad and Trixie.   The bar, Mother's, from the movie About Last Night, is in Lincoln Park.  It's close to Lake Michigan.  A real estate consultant in Lincoln Park requires knowledge, panache, a sense of "hip", and a thorough understanding of urban living. One look at Jeff Kerr's ChiTownLiving and you can see that he has all the qualities I've mentioned for success in Lincoln Park real estate brokerage.  His post, "Trust, But Verify", is a knowledgeable but humorous article about what condo buyers need to do.  Quoting Ronald Reagan is one way to win over America's Most Opinionated Mortgage Broker, a free T-shirt is clearly another.

I love Chicago; it's my kind of town.

Alas, Chicago, for all of it's guile and charm, has thermometers that drop below 50 degrees.  So...San Diegans, you ain't gonna lose me!  I took the picture in front of the Del Mar Race Track to show you that as much as I love the 312. I represent the 858. 

Chicagoans, I love your city; it's my kind of town.  Come visit us here!

Thanks, Jeff!  Chicago may be my kind of town, but you OWN that town and ChiTownLiving proves it!

Did you get the POINTS?

My friend and colleague in Coffee Bean Town (Seattle) wrote a post on the expert real estate weblog, Rain City Guide.  Like Bloodhound Blog, it is considered to have "expert authority" on the internet.

Well, I must have been feeling froggy because I goaded her into a post about points and the effect of the overall cost of capital.  Actually, I wanted to respect her expert authority on her "domain".  Rhonda Porter clearly has expert authority in mortgage financing.

Can I explain this concept to you if you're buying in Arizona, California, New Mexico, or Nevada?  Of course. 

Read her explanation.  It's quite good.  Call Rhonda if you're buying in Washington.  Tell her that guy with the opinion sent you.

FOR PHOENIX REALTORS...

I reported about the Russell Shaw FREE Training Series last week.

Greg Swann reports:

Mega-producing Realtor and BloodhoundBlog contributor Russell Shaw is hosting a series of Sales Success symposia for striving Realtors. The purpose of the events is to establish the most vitally-important points to be covered in a sales training curriculum, to be produced in the coming months in audio and video podcasts. Russell will address larger meta-topics and then entertain questions from the audience to unearth smaller but still important sub-topics to be addressed in the podcasts.

The first of these events will be held on Tuesday March 13, 2007, at the offices of North American Title, 3200 East Camelback Road, Suite #150, Phoenix, AZ 85018. The event will run from 6:00 PM to approximately 10:00 PM. Russell will handle two meta-topics, followed by question and answer sessions, with a short break between. North American Title and Worldwide Credit Corporation are sponsoring the event and will make short presentations.

Who should come? A striving Realtor is one who has learned how to stay afloat in this business but wants to learn how to build a bigger, more profitable business. In other words, if you’re a brand new agent or if you’re happy with your current level of production or if you’re already a top-producer, these symposia are not for you. Because Russell is building the curriculum for a full-blown Sales Success training course, his goal is to hear from the Realtors who want most to learn the lessons he has mastered in his career.

If you would like to attend this event, fill out our RSVP form. The space available to us is limited, so don’t fill out the form unless you know for sure you can attend. This is an opportunity to learn a whole lot even as you help other Realtors learn a whole lot — for years to come. Plus which, it should be a lot of fun…

Lenn Harley of HomeFinders.com

Lenn on her "new" business strategy:

So, it worked?

Brian, I just “love it when a plan comes together”

Were there fears or trepidations or were you confident in your strategy?

There was never any doubt.  I never had any fear or trepidations because I was NOT “trying” anything.

Lenn on business through social networking websites:

No.  I would not refer a home buyer to any lender simply because of a friendship or relationship developed on a blog.

...I just settled on Wednesday with a buyer who had been pre-qualified with an Internet lender.  He had been taking advice from an online mortgage transparency “guru“.  It was a disaster.

Lenn on whether or not she is a "go it alone kind of gal" :

Goodness !  Where did you get the idea that I am going it alone?  No such thing!

CHECK OUT THE FULL INTERVIEW HERE 

This one was so much fun!  My Broker Bryant interview and X Broker Interview were somewhat easy.  I met Jeff Corbett before and spoke to Bryant on the phone a lot before the interview .  This was a challenge.  The first time I spoke to Lenn was after we finished the hard work of Q & A. Lenn is sweet, professional, smart, and best of all...

SHE'S OPINIONATED !  Just like America's Most Opinionated Mortgage Broker likes 'em!

* Picture used with permission of Lenn Harley and Homefinders.com   

SELLING? Pray Padres GM, Kevin Towers, isn't your buyer

Last year, local boy made good, Adrian Gonzalez was the Most Valuable Player for the Padres (Gonzalez is from Chula Vista).  He it for over .300 with 24 homers for the Friars.

Adrian's agent wanted him to get a little  respect and offered the Padres his MVP-like services for $418,000 (an amount less than the median-priced home in San Diego County).  The Padres countered at $391,500 and cautioned him that if he didn't accept their offer, the next would be at $380,500.  The trick is that the Padres control Adrian Gonzales (he doesn't have enough time in the bigs for free agency).

Is this starting to sound like a classic foreclosure sale negotiation? The seller wants $418,000 and the buyer knows that they could swoop in at the last minute for $380,500 (assume that is what is owed on the home).  The home may have intrinsic value that could fetch as much as $600,000 after some cosmetic repairs and a firming market.  In the foreclosure sale negotiation, the buyer just wants the home, not the seller's goodwill.

This is where the difference lies; the Padres should want Adrian's goodwill.

READ:  Michael Cook's piece about negotiation.

The Padres need to be developing talent for the future should they wish to remain competitive.  Keeping Adrian Gonzales happy should be a priority for the Padres.  The correct gesture, now,  would be for the Padres to retain their original offer at $391,500 and submit that they were always willing to pay that.  It's not perfect but it could make a difference.  The point is (as seen in Michael Cook's aforementioned piece), you can exercise your power in a negotiation today to have it bite you on the ass later.

Adrian says he's not upset; he's glad to be playing baseball.  Mr. Towers sends a message to Padres fans that a prosperous future is not necessarily a priority.

Sellsius Real Estate Rocks!

Sellsius is the perfect straight man for me.  I love T shirts, they love to see their name all over the web. I'm Jerry Lewis and they're Dean Martin.

This was the first free one.  I'll wear any shirt and post it on the web promoting your company...

...but you gotta get me the shirt.

Brian Brady

PO Box 279

Solana Beach, CA  92075

 

Thank you Rudy and Joe!

 

SELLSIUS ROCKS!