Has San Diego Real Estate Topped in March of 2020 ?

A North County Realtor asked me to help her answer the question, "Has real estate peaked in 2020?". 

The short answer is "No.'  Here is the long answer:

We have a supply/demand imbalance which won't get much better for years to come, maybe decades to come. f you REALLY want to get a read on the supply problem (and potential for upwards pricing) perform this exercise:

Run a search (on Homesnap) for 3 BR /2BA properties FOR SALE , in all of Carlsbad, under $850K. 




Now run that same search for "UNDER CONTRACT"





Then look at them overlaid-.




This frightens me.  What I can't determine is whether this is a demand curve shift (which means that prices are about to rise dramatically) or whether this is a seasonal/cyclical top.  I sincerely believe the former, mostly because of this article  about demand (and many other articles before it.)  I saw this coming two years ago and articulated it here. 

Challenge my theories but please read the linked material.  Demographics are destiny and demand is going to be at this level for 10-20 years.  Unless NIMBY politics is defeated (it wont be), I think the demand CURVE is shifting.  Buying property is a good idea but an even better idea is to start educating your Gen-Z kids so they can "get on the ladder" in 10-15 years