BradyLoan.com

Realtors losing listings to iBuyers

Guess what?  Zillow is entering the San Diego residential real estate market and Realtors should take it seriously:

Zillow Offers is continuing its expansion, announcing Monday it will be buying and selling homes in San Diego.  Through its iBuying service, Zillow seeks to provide a solution by enabling sellers to forget about the hassle of cleaning their home, forgoing home repairs, open houses, and the like. They can even choose the date they want to sell and move by. (For more on what, exactly, is an iBuyer, read this.)

I know.  I know.  Zillow is no competition for a professional, local expert...or is it?  What San Diego Realtors often miss is that, while iBuyers may "low-ball" sellers, looking for homes with cosmetic repairs needed, the simple fact is that the iBuyers end up negotiating with sellers long before an agent has a chance to prsent his/her services.  Here is my friend, Phoenix real estate broker Greg Swann:

As for iBuyers being nothing to worry about: Ahem.

If they’re in your town, they’re in your potential-seller’s head – and maybe in his email in-box, too. They’re in everyone’s net.world, on billboards, radio, TV. If your prospect hasn’t solicited an offer yet, you need to get out in front of that eventuality.

The iBuyers are the elephant in the room at your listing appointment. If the seller doesn’t bring them up, you had better. It could be that iBuyer offers are already in play, so you may already be smoked. Or the seller may want your help going that way, in which case you just made the easiest money in your real estate career – although the party to whom you owe fiduciary duty may have just pissed away half or more of his accrued equity in the home. Or, god help you, he may want to be sold on the value of listing traditionally.

But to go in to a listing appointment assuming the listing is your to lose is a mistake, I think. In the iBuyer world, the listing is theirs to lose, yours to win. You got the appointment because the seller wants your advice, not because he wants your sign in his yard for six months.

Greg has done extensive research on just how poorly iBuyers perform and you should follow what he's doing.  More importantly, read the emboldened statement Greg made. I'll parse it for you here:

You got the appointment because the seller wants your advice, not because he wants your sign in his yard for six months

Realtors need a strategy to position themselves as a trusted advisor so that their clients contact them before the iBuyers do.  Gary Keller said, some 15 years ago, that Realtors are either going to be fiduciaries enabled by technology or functionaries working for technology.  Thus, San Diego Realtors are going to have to examine the way they charge clients for the knowledge, advice, and expertise.  For too long, Realtors have relied on the commission model ad the only way to charge for their services.  Developing a "menu of services", which includes pre-MLS solicitation of iBuyer offers seems like the only way to get ahead of the curve.

There are STILL great real estate investment deals in San Diego

Yes, you can still make money in San Diego real estate and no, I dont know if property prices are going to drop. Here is what I DO know; there is a housing shortage in San Diego and rental rates should keep rising.

 

This means that, if you buy a property at the right price, and intend to hold it for 7-10 years, you should really make some money. Let me share with you the most recent transaction I handled for an investor. I represented the investor and my wife Debra handled the financing.

 

Our investor bought a Mission Valley 2 BR, 1 BA condo for $355,000. We closed on it three days ago (June 12)   She put 30% down and, with closing costs, it cost here $113,000 cash-to- close. Her mortgage payment, including taxes, insurance, and HOA fee is $2096. You can see the whole financing breakdown here

 

I immediately advertised it for rent on Craigslist, Zillow, Trulia, Hotpads, and Cozy at $2095/month. Yesterday (June 14), we signed a multi-year lease with a tenant who has a credit score of over 750.   In two days, my investor signed a lease which covers all the debt servicing expenses.

 

I think rising inflation will double San Diego real estate prices in the next 10-12 years but, with just a 4% inflation rate, this property should sell for $525,000 in 2028. At that point, my investor will walk away with about $300,000, almost triple of what she invested today.

 

Was this easy?

 

Absolutely not. I toured over 40 properties for her and only showed her properties which met three criteria:

 

1- They were "clean", meaning it would cost less than $1500 in cosmetic repairs to move in

2- They were in a San Diego neighborhood which was in demand.

3- They had been on the market for 21 days and could be purchased for a price which produced positive cash flow with 30% down payment.

 

She spent a 4 hour period with me and saw 7 properties. She offered on three of them, we negotiated with two sellers, and settled on the Mission Valley condo

 

It wasn't easy for me but I made it easy for her, and now she has a great investment.

 

Want me to do this for you?

 

Call me at 858-777-9751. We'll meet for lunch and I'll listen to your investment needs and goals. If they match up with what I am doing, I'll find the perfect investment property for you. If not, we'll have a great time catching up with one another.

I can't think of a better time to be a San Diego County listing agent...

...and a worse time to be a San Diego buyers' agent.

San Diego is in a housing crisis and the simple explanation for it is that we have a tremendous backlog of new housing--the politicians aren't helping us either. NIMBY-ism, water restrictions, and traffic density are core issues which restrict housing and, while they are legitimate issues, the county has a 65,000 unit backlog of new housing.

Experts believe that San Diego County needs 170,000 housing units built from 2012-2025 to meet demand and population growth- some 15,000 housing units each year. Over the past five years, San Diego County has averaged 2000 new housing units.. We are already 65,000 units behind and, if we continue at this anemic pace, we will end up 120,000 housing units short in 8 years. That is pushing up prices of existing homes.

You might think that rising housing prices, and double digit rent increases, will halt population growth in the County. While it might, SANDAG believes the region will grow by another million people within 25 years. Increased demand for housing and restricted supply means one of two things to your clients: they have to move out of San Diego County or home ownership is now, more than ever, the only defense against this housing shortage. Your role, as a buyer's agent, is now more important than ever to your clients' futures.

We are here to help you--here are three ways we can do that.

1- TBD approvals: this isn't a pre-qualification, this isn't a pre-approval, this is a full underwriting approval for the buyers' credit and income. We take an application, gather up supporting documentation, submit the file to the underwriter, and have a clean approval within 5 business days. What this means is that we can close a transaction in 21 days, giving your buyers a competitive advantage when they make offers.

2- "Selling" the buyer to the listing agent: a lot of the buyer's agents we work with ask us to speak to the listing agent when they make the offer. We communicate to them that we have that underwriting approval and, more importantly, tell them exactly what that means. It means that the only issues for a full loan approval are property related: appraisal, homeowners insurance and title insurance. When we explain the process to the listing agent, and represent the strength of the buyer, more offers get accepted.

3- VA and FHA condo approvals. So many condominium buyers are shut out because the complex lacks an agency approval, The perception is that VA and FHA condominium complex approvals are burdensome and lengthy--nothing could be farther from the truth.  Debra and I are experienced experts at VA condo approvals-- we have approved over 130 of them in the past 8 years and we get those purchase transactions closed in 45 days or less.  FHA condo approvals are easier for us because we have a HUD-delegated underwriter who has the ability and discretion to approve the complex FHA-eligible

This is a great time to be a real estate agent in San Diego County, especially if you list a lot of properties.  Representing buyers however, is difficult.  We're here to make that job easier on you.

2017 San Diego County Real Estate Market Outlook

It's been a great run.  Back in late 2011, we were pounding the table for investors to buy a single-family home in San Diego County, especially in what we called  "Blue Collar Beach Towns".  Then, you could purchase a single-family detached property for $250,000.  We were nervous so we advised investors to put at least 25% down and only buy a property where the rent could cover the pre-tax housing expenses (mortgage, taxes, insurance, estimated maintenance).  If you were one of our investors, you are probably sitting on over $100,000 of profit today.  That means you will have almost tripled your investment in a period of about 5 years or earned an internal rate of return in excess of 27%.

It's been a great run but it looks like the party is over.  We think the first half of 2017 is going to be a good time for investors to take some money off of the table, especially if they have a plan for that money in the next 3-4 years.  This doesn't mean we think the market is going to crash, like it did in 2008-2012 but we think the prices are going to soften and perhaps decline 10-15%.

The three reasons we loved San Diego single-family homes, as an investment in 2012, are the same reasons we don't love them today:  median price and median income, price-to-rent-ratio, and mortgage rates direction.  We still like single-family homes for owner occupants but we just don't love them as investments.

The 2016 median income in San Diego County is $73, 500 for a family of five.  This translates to a maximum monthly mortgage of approximately $2050 (PITI) or a $344,000 mortgage.  Add a 20% down payment and the family of five, earning the median income in San Diego county, can afford to purchase a home for $430,000.  A median-priced home, in San Diego county, was $495,000 this past summer.  That's a 15% premium.

Keep in mind that. back in late 2011/early 2012, a veteran could purchase a single-family home, in Oceanside CA, for zero down payment and her mortgage payment would be cheaper than rent.  Today, if that same veteran purchased a median priced home in San Diego County, the mortgage payment would be $2800.  There are tax benefits to owning versus renting so let's make the after-tax costs of owning a home $2500.  That same home can be rented for $2200; this is after a rental shortage in San Diego County spiked rents these past few years.

Look at 3792 Atlas Street as an example.  It is being offered for rent at $2200 and the Zillow Zestimate is for a $528,100 value.  Even if a home buyer had 20% down payment, their after-tax mortgage cost would be about $2300; $100 month more than they could rent the property.  It still makes sense to own that property, if you intend to live in it for 7-10 years but it just isn't a compelling investment when looking at the price-to rent ratio anymore.

Finally, we think the carrying costs for real estate (aka mortgage rates) can only go up from here.  Interest rates may start climbing in a couple of months or it could take as much as a year for mortgage rates to rise.  Eventually, mortgage rates are going to be 1-2% higher than they are today.  More importantly, the threat of higher mortgage rates is starting to affect pricing now.  Back in 2014, people still thought rates could come down so they weren't too particular about paying 5% more than last year's prices; they figured they could refinance into a lower rate soon enough.  Today, the opposite is true.

 What does this all mean to you?

If you are a real estate investor, it might make sense to sell that San Diego County investment property, especially if you plan to use the money in the next 4-5 years.  If you don't plan to use the money, and want to avoid paying capital gain taxes, I have two ideas for you:

1- Consider the Greater Phoenix area.  You will increase your income (the capitalization rates are better) and there is still some upside appreciation to be gotten there (not a ton but better than San Diego County).  We refer our clients to Greg Swann of Bloodhound Realty.

2- Consider placing the proceeds from the investment property sale into a Delaware Statutory Trust.  This is a security so we don't handle these transactions but we refer our clients to investment adviser Tony Krvaric of Krvaric Capital.

What if you just want to buy a home to live in?

There is no greater place to live (in my opinion) than San Diego County.  We have beaches, mountains and deserts.  Our climate is second to none and our business environment is relatively robust.  Unemployment, in San Diego County, is less than the rest of California and the rest of the country.  San Diego County is a great place to own a home.... BUT....

...we think the short-term prospects of higher prices are unlikely.  Even with the Great Recession, if you bought and held a home fir ten years, you made money in San Diego County.  Our advice then is to be judicious when buying an owner-occupied home in 2017.  We suggest that you do three things:

1- Establish your holding period.  If you plan to move in less than 7 years, you could lose money.  If you plan to live in the property for at least ten years, you should make money.

2- Call us to run a rent v. own scenario for you.  This is where we analyze the price-rent-ratio.  For traditional, 20% down payment transactions, it can still make sense to own for the long-term in San Diego County.

3- Negotiate, be patient, and shop around.  You don't have to get a home at 15% under list price to get a good deal but we don't' think you have to pay list price to get a home in 2017.  Sales have slowed in San Diego County, ever so slightly, but they have slowed.

Conclusion:

Inventory is still under three months which suggests that this is a seller's market, That could all change once prices start softening (they are showing signs of that now).  If you are an current investment property owner, the first six months of 2017 will be an excellent time to sell and realize your profits.  If you are a potential home buyer, we think you are going to have more options next year than you do today.

1505 Circle Ranch Way #54 Oceanside CA 92057 MLS # 160035633

This beautiful, end town home has upgraded cabinets, granite counters, and tile and hard wood flooring in the well-maintained community of Rancho Rose in Oceanside.  Rancho Rose Community has a resort-style pool and hot tub, nestled beloe swaying palm trees, and a guest equestrian facility on the property. 

This Oceanside town home has granite and tile throughout the kitchen and all three bathrooms.  The living room has rich-looking hard wood floors.   You can park in your attached 2-car garage and relax or barbecue on your enclosed patio. Ample guest parking. 

Upstairs, there are three bedrooms:  the master suite is attached to the master bathroom and the other two bedrooms share a jack and jill bathroom.

You can finance this home, with no down payment with your VA benefit or use a conventional loan with 5% down payment.  an FHA complex approval is pending with World Wide Credit Corporation.

 Near the Home Depot and shopping, this Oceanside town home is convenient to Camp Pendleton and was built in 2004.

See pictures of this home

Look at the property information

Compare financing options

View the Rancho Rose HOA documents

Here is how to make an offer:

if you are represented by an agent, he/she will prepare an offer for you.  If not, call Brian Brady at 858-777-9751.

If the offer includes financing, the seller requests that you be  cross-approved with Debra Brady of World Wide Credit Corporation.  Here is how to do that:

1- Fill out an online loan application
2- Call Debra at 858-412-7585 to get a list of documents needed to upload to a dropbox.  These documents will include:  last two paystubs, 2015 and 2014 W2 forms, last two months' bank statements, and a copy of your ID.
3- Upload the documents to the Dropbox Debra sets up for you

The seller requests that the escrow company be Ticor Title in Solana Beach and that the title policy be issued by Fidelity national Title- Mark Boeh.

Who Will Rent to the Millennials? A Case for Owning An Apartment House in Your Investment Portfolio

Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries confirms what I"ve been saying for five years now; Millennials prefer renting to owning a home.  Millennials can be defined as the generation born from in the early 1980s to the early 2000s.  If you want to be more definitive, let's say 1981 through 2002 (or today's 12-33 year olds.) This is a HUGE demographic, some 80-90 million Americans.

They ain't buying homes.  Here's why: 

(1) older Millennials got burned in the real estate boom and bust last decade.  They were the "last in" on the Federal Reserve-induced boom and bought at the top of the market.  When the balloon popped, they got caught holding the bag.  So many of them short sold those properties or lost them in foreclosure because...

(2) ...they don't have the income.  1in 7 can't find work and over 4 out of 10 of the best educated millennials are underemployed.

(3) they have a giant debt-load, thanks to the student loan program.

(4) Millennials are mobile, uncommitted, and untethered by choice.  Laying down roots doesn't appeal to this financially-strapped generation.  As they struggle to find meaningful, well-paying work, they are postponing marriage and child-rearing--two key factors which encourage home ownership.

What's that mean for San Diego real estate?  As millennials postpone the home purchase decision, the median age of first-time home buyers will rise.   The linked article about the Zillow research suggest it could rise to as high as 33 years old (nationally) by the end of the decade--that number was around 28 years old last decade.  In San Diego, we typically add 3-4 years to the national average because of our high home prices.  Stated simply, we may not feel the full  effect of millenial homebuyers for another 15 years. 

How can an investor capitalize on this?  Give 'em what they want--rental housing.  As wage inflation kicks in, there will be an upwards pressure on rents.  As rents rise, the price of multi-family properties rises too.  Investors can purchase 3-4 unit properties today, with 25% down, and have positive cash-flow based on existing rents.  There are over two dozen properties for sale today in San Diego County, three of which are in Oceanside (my favorite investment location) which meet the positive cash-flow test.

I think you're going to see rents double in the next 10 years and I believe multi-family properties could increase as much as 50% in value during that time.  Investors have a chance to double or triple their money in the next ten years.  Contact me to analyze the numbers and risks associated with this advice.

Mortgages For Condominium Complexes With Commercial Businesses (Mixed-Use)

Some mortgage lenders eschew condominium complexes which have a portion of the complex leased to commercial businesses.  For example, in Pacific Beach (San Diego), there is a property with 8 units on top of a 2200 square foot, retail business.  Why won't lenders make a loan there?

Both FHA & conventional financing permit a certain amount of the property, to lease commercial space.  Fannie Mae allows for 20% of the property to be leased to commercial ventures as does Freddie Mac.  FHA allows for up to 25% of the square footage to be leased commercially.

If the commercial space is more than the permitted percentage of the project, or it's being advertised as a condo-tel, or the public liability insurance doesn't cover the commercial spaces that are owned by the HOA, the loan can be funded.

In our Pacific Beach example, each of the eight units is approximately 975 square feet, for a total of 7800 square feet.  The retail space is 2200 square feet.  The commercial lease is 22% of the toal square footage of the complex.  It is not eligibile for Fannie mae or Freddie Mac financing but is eligible for FHA financing.

San Diego Housing Approaches Rent Vs. Own Parity

Should you buy a home or rent one, in San Diego? 

As always, that depends.  If you're looking for a home in La Jolla, you may never find a one which is less expensive to own than rent, in today's dollars.  The physical beauty of the seaside burg is stunning and La Jolla has traditionally traded at a steep premium to rent v. own parity.

Nick Timiraos suggested that buying conditions are getting better for San Diego, in the Wall Street Journal:

Home ownership is also looking more affordable because after several years of declines, apartment rents will rise by around 4% this year, says Mr. Nadji. He says rents are poised "to pick up even more momentum across the country next year."

Rising rents are one reason a would-be home buyer should consider purchasing a La Jolla home rather than waiting for prices to reach parity there.  If inflation kicks in, and onc day it will, rents could increase a level far above what the mortgage payment, for a La Jolla home, would be today.

Even cities where it is still cheaper to rent than own have seen big boosts in affordability. In San Diego, the monthly cost of owning a home has averaged around 83% more than renting over the past two decades. During the third quarter, owning was 22% more expensive than renting, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Take note of this figure.  In many San Diego sub-markets, (mostly the beach cities), housing prices will never reach parity with today's rents.  Like the La Jolla example, inlaftion may cure that in 2-3 years.  Still, some San Diego County markets have already reached parity meaning, it's cheaper to own rather than rent.  Even in some beach cities, like Oceanside or Imperial Beach.

I searched active Oceanside homes for sale and found one which is listed for $189,000.  With about $7,000 down payment,  and an FHA loan with a 4.88% APR, the monthly mortgage payment would be $1250, some $50-$100 below what it might fetch in rent.  That's one of many Oceanside properties which are at or below parity for the rent V own model.

I also found plenty of similar opportunities while searching for homes for sale in Chula Vista.  There were many more recently built homes, which command premium rents, listed under $250,000.

San Diego entrepreneur Bill Lyons intends to make these home searches easier when he releases his new website, Revestor.com.  Revestor organizes current listings, by capitalization rate or cash flow, to offer homeowners a chance to "rate" properties, by comparing the listed price to current rental data.

San Diego is still selling at a slight premium but this may be as good as it gets.  If mortgage rates continue to stay low, because of the Fed's printing press and quantitative easing, the bubble for low rates will soon pop, and inflation will kick in.  Locking in a price, and a low mortgage rate, might be the best way to insure you won a piece of our sunshiney paradise.

San Diego County Houses For Sale Down. Is This a Head Fake?

Jeff Dowler reports that Oceanside supply (number of properties available) is dropping precipitously.  This phenomenon is happening all over San Diego County causing new home buyers to get into bidding wars for aggressively-priced, bank-owned properties:

At the end of May 2009 there were 726 Oceanside homes for sale (380 detached and 346 attached) a decline of 7% from the end of April (this includes the homes with Contingent status). This represents an inventory of only 1.8 months for detached homes and 3.7 months for detached homes based on the current rate of sales over the last 6 months, both of which declined again from the previous month.  These absorption rates continue to be impressive when compared to many other parts of the country, some of which have over 2 years of inventory. Indeed we are seeing more multiple offers, not only on distress sales but also on regular sales, especially below $400,000. 

In May we saw 162 homes come on the market, 31% fewer than in April (and almost half the number of new listings in March) . During May 211 homes went pending, about 20% fewer than in the previous month. So coupled with another decline in inventory (with fewer new homes for sale) we saw an increase in volume, which has resulted in the low absorption rates noted above.

Is this the bottom of the real estate market or, as Greg Swann referred to this phenomenon in Phoenix, a "Fools Gold Rush" ?

Here's what's really going on: Last fall FannieMae and FreddieMac, along with some of the bigger private mortgage banks, declared a moratorium on new foreclosures.

So for four months, homes that would have been foreclosed on sat on the sidelines of the real estate market.

And for those same four months, inventories of already-foreclosed homes declined. In March of 2009, for example, a total of 7,621 listed homes were sold in the Phoenix area, of which 5,066 -- two thirds! -- were lender-owned homes.

That sounds good doesn't it? Even better, as I write this, only 7,607 lender-owned homes are listed as being Active in the MLS database. That's just a month-and-a-half's supply. Happy days are here again!

Not quite. That Fannie/Freddie moratorium on new foreclosures ended on April 1st. In the first three weeks of April, there were 2,460 new lender-owned listings. And there are still two years of foreclosures in the pipeline.

What we're seeing is a Fool's Gold Rush. The perceived shortage of housing is an illusion, an artifact of a normal number of buyers competing for an inventory that seems to be declining rapidly. It isn't. Instead, even now the inventory of lender-owned homes is surging.

Head fake or hard numbers?  The federal foreclosure mortatorium is over but the State of California just initiated a like measure for ninety days.  Are these moratoria government's efforts to delay the inevitable or are bargains really available to the San Diego County home buyers?  Keep in mind that lenders will have been forbidden to pursue a defaulted San Diego County homeowner for seven out of twelve months this year.  This could lead to an onslaught of inventory after Halloween.  That might just be okay because we're seeing lots of pent-up demand to mop up that excess supply.

A first-time home buyer tax credit, combined with relatively low mortgage rates still might make today's property offerings a bargain.  You might analyze each property the way we do so that your downside is limited.  Certainly, property prices should be higher in 2020 than they are today.  Just be careful to do your homework.

Whichever you decide, Jeff Dowler is a pretty sharp North County real estate agent.  Use his Search tool to look at the properties offered.

Oceanside Investment Properties: Foreclosure Tours ?

I'm bullish, long-term, on coastal California real estate- that's no secret.  The underlying demographics are still positive for California; more people will be moving in than moving out, over the next 20 years.  Aging baby boomers yearn for warm climes in retirement.  While California has its share of problems, it is still the "promised land" for many Americans.

Southern California is getting hammered.  Housing prices in San Diego County have dropped like a ball off a table.  While tony communities like La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe have held up, towns like Oceanside have experienced severe declines.  Two "beach towns" we like, in San Diego County, are Oceanside and Imperial Beach.  We're "value investors" and have been since our days on Wall Street.  Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett "speak" to us.  We regard California beach towns as "blue chip" stocks.  Today, thos "blue chips" are becoming affordable.

My daughter's theatrical debut, at The Star Theater, affords me a Saturday afternoon in Oceanside.  As I looked out the window of the Jitters Cafe (free wireless), I saw THIS sign.    I had to snap a picture of it!

While Hollywood HIlls offers a "tour of the stars' homes", Oceanside offers a tour of foreclosed homes.  I don't begrudge the REALTOR a little creative marketing; in this market, a "foreclosure tour" is appealing to value investors. 

The waters are clearing as we apply the financials, to some of the offered homes, in Oceanside.